Columbia Basin Hydro Forecasting
2011 Seasonal runoff forecasts for the Columbia River at Grand Coulee
Dam, The Dalles, Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River and Albeni
Falls Dam on the Pend Oreille are available and will be sent on a
weekly schedule beginning in December. HyMet forecasts have proven
to be as accurate and more informative than alternative forecasting
methods.
The Columbia Basin has the capacity to generate over 36,000 megawatts
of renewable energy each hydro year. Depending upon current kwh pricing,
stream flow volumes, combined with several other factors, the basin
provides $30-50 billion to the energy market annually. Managing these
fluctuations successfully requires precision hydro forecasting; increasing
operational planning accuracy and minimizing trading risk.
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The HyMet Stream flow Forecasting service
has been providing reliable forecasts
of seasonal inflow of the Columbia River for
eight years for distribution to public and
private utilities, energy traders and investment
banks. These forecasts are distributed
by email on a weekly schedule from
early December to mid- September.
The HyMet forecasting model uses daily
observations of precipitation, temperature
and runoff to produce these forecasts. Our
Combined Columbia Weekly Forecasts at
Grand Coulee, The Dalles and Lower Granite
Dams contain detailed charts and tables
of forecast hydrograph and basin water
storage, which includes snowpack and
groundwater storage. Basin water storage
is distributed according to altitude to improve
the accuracy and timing of the forecasts.
The Columbia River is the
largest hydroelectric producing
basin in Western
North America. The 55
hydroelectric dams on its
main stem and tributaries
have the capacity to generate
300 billion Kwh of
renewable energy annually,
valued at $30—50
billion on the current energy
market.
Click here to download the brochure in .pdf format
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HyMet is also providing weekly forecasts of hydroelectric energy generation
produced at the thirteen hydro projects operated by Federal Agencies
in the Columbia Basin.
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RELIABLE FORECASTS OF POWER GENERATED BY FEDERAL HYDRO PROJECTS
The
thirteen federally owned and operated hydroelectric projects on
the Columbia River produce an average of 8700 MW of energy
annually. The energy production can vary greatly as the system
operation responds to changing hydrology, non-Power
requirements, electricity demands and energy market values.
Our Forecasting Service provides accurate, up –to-date
projections of the hydroelectric energy from these projects in
the days, weeks and months ahead.
ACCURACY: AVERAGE ABSOLUTE ERROR FOR ONE WEEK FORECAST DURING
THE 2008 SEASON WAS 15%
- WEEKLY AND MONTHLYFORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF WATER YEAR
- STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE LIMITS, HISTORICAL ERROR RECORD
- R-SQUARED PROVIDED WITH EACH FORECAST
- FORECASTS AVAILABLE FOR 1 TO 300 DAYS IN ADVANCE WITHIN A WATER YEAR
Click here to download the brochure in .pdf format
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To request more information, please see our Contact page.